Hertha Berlin play host to Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday afternoon with just four points separating the two clubs in the standings.
While 10th-placed Hertha are unbeaten since the resumption of Germany's top flight, Augsburg have recorded four points from their last two fixtures.
Match preview
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When football was suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic, Hertha boss Bruno Labbadia would have had mixed emotions from a footballing perspective after three games without success.
However, an upturn in results, combined with the form of the other teams in the bottom half of the table, has resulted in Hertha pulling away from safety.
Seven points from three matches have been recorded behind-closed doors, a return which is second only to leaders Bayern Munich, and Labbadia will now feel that his side can get themselves into the race for a Europa League spot.
Nine goals have also been netted from fixtures against Hoffenheim, Union Berlin and RB Leipzig, with just Vedad Ibisevic and Matheus Cunha having more two strikes to their name.
Nevertheless, with a trip to Borussia Dortmund to follow, Labbadia will acknowledge that there is pressure to gain three points from this encounter, which would effectively put themselves out of reach of the teams in the bottom three.
From Augsburg's perspective, collecting four points from their last two outings has eased their concerns regarding relegation to the second tier.
While there would have been frustration with a goalless draw at home to bottom-of-the-table side Paderborn in midweek, it was ultimately another point towards safety.
As well as now being four points above the relegation playoff spot, keeping back-to-back clean sheets is another huge plus for Heiko Herrlich's team.
Although Augsburg have a favourable run-in compared to some of their rivals, they still need more points on the board if they are to avoid become a factor in the race to stay out of the bottom two.
Hertha Berlin Bundesliga form: LDDWWD
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LLLLWD
Team News
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Although Labbadia would prefer to retain the same starting lineup, the Hertha head coach will take fitness into consideration as his side prepare to play their third game in just over a week.
With Marvin Plattenhardt having suffered a concussion in midweek, Maximilian Mittelstadt and Luca Netz are in contention to replace him at left-back.
Krzysztof Piatek is pushing for a start in attack, while Rune Jarstein will keep his place between the sticks with Thomas Kraft on the sidelines.
Marius Wolf and Santiago Ascacibar are both expected to miss out on a place in the squad due to foot injuries.
Given the short turnaround, Augsburg boss Herrlich will consider handing a start to former Arsenal defender Stephan Lichtsteiner.
Although Alfred Finnbogason is close to returning from a knee problem, the Iceland international is unlikely to be thrown into the starting XI.
Hertha Berlin possible starting lineup:
Jarstein; Pekarik, Torunarigha, Boyata, Mittelstadt; Skjelbred, Darida, Grujic; Cunha, Lukebakio, Ibisevic
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Luthe, Framberger, Jedvaj, Uduokhai, Max; Baier, Khedira; Richter, Lowen, Bazee; Niederlechner
We say: Hertha Berlin 2-1 Augsburg
While Hertha have been terrific since the restart, we feel that this will be a closely-fought battle. Nevertheless, with a number of teams above them in their sights, we expect the home side to prevail by a narrow margin, leaving Augsburg to keep looking over their shoulder towards the relegation zone.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hertha Berlin win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 33.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hertha Berlin would win this match.
