Inter Miami's hopes of reaching the playoff series this year are now all but out of reach with only two games left to play of the regular season, while New York City FC must ensure that they avoid a late drop out of the top seven in the Eastern Conference.
New York are currently sitting in fourth, only four points clear of Montreal and state rivals New York Red Bulls, who both have a game in hand on the Pigeons at this late stage of the campaign.
Match preview
© Reuters
Phil Neville's side's form from September 18 has been a major factor as to why Miami are going to miss out on a playoff place this year, as since that date they have lost seven out of nine games.
After promising back-to-back victories against Toronto and Cincinnati, Inter Miami had revived hope of breaking into the top seven, but another defeat last time out has left Neville's team needing a big swing in goal difference and other results to go their way to qualify for the playoffs.
Gonzalo Higuain had managed to get his side into a winning position against Atlanta United at half time on Thursday, but Luiz Araujo and Josef Martinez turned the game around for Atlanta, with the final score settling at 2-1 to the home side.
Despite seeing less of the ball in that match, Miami created enough chances in front of goal to score more, but that has been the story of their season, as they continue to be the lowest scorers in the Eastern Conference.
New York City should also fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet themselves on Saturday, with Inter Miami conceding 32 goals at the Lockhart Stadium in just 16 games on home soil this season.
© Reuters
Ronny Deila's team enter Saturday's encounter on a three-game unbeaten run in the MLS, and the Pigeons have won back-to-back games for the first time since July.
Valentin Castellanos made sure that his side followed up their 6-0 thrashing of DC United with another three points by converting his 51st-minute penalty against Chicago Fire on Thursday.
That performance against 12th-placed Chicago did not quite reach the heights of their performance against DC United, but particularly at this stage of the season, collecting three points is the most crucial aspect.
New York City are at risk of being caught by teams beneath them, but victory this weekend could take Deila's side onto enough points to mathematically secure their playoff place before the final gameweek next weekend.
However, New York have not been anywhere near as effective away from home as they have been at the Yankee Stadium this year, only picking up 14 of their 47 points on their travels this term.
The Pigeons will want to replicate their result from when these two teams met in August, when New York City ran out as 2-0 winners over Inter Miami, courtesy of a brace from Castellanos.
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Inter Miami continue to have a whole host of players unavailable for selection due to injury including Ian Fray, Joevin Jones, Kieran Gibbs, Ryan Shawcross and Victor Ulloa.
Last time out, Neville opted for a back three defensively, but Inter Miami are expected to revert to a back four on Saturday made up by Brek Shea, Christian Makoun, Aime Mabika and Kelvin Leerdam.
New York City duo Nicolas Acevedo and Anton Tinnerholm both picked up injuries earlier this month and they will continue to be sidelined for the rest of this campaign.
Deila named an unchanged starting 11 last time out, and after two positive results, the away side are likely to set up in the same way again this Saturday, meaning that Keaton Parks and Alfredo Morales will continue in the middle of the pitch.
Castellanos is only one goal behind the MLS' top goalscorer this season, DC United's Ola Kamara, and the New York City striker will have the Golden Boot in his sights.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
Marsman; Shea, Makoun, Mabika, Leerdam; Matuidi, Gregore; Pizarro, Federico Higuain, Morgan; Gonzalo Higuain
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Johnson; Amundsen, Callens, Chanot, Sands; Parks, Morales; Rodriguez, Moralez, Thiago; Castellanos
We say: Inter Miami 0-2 New York City FC
Inter Miami are likely to be deflated in their remaining two games as they have allowed the playoff places to slip away from them, and New York City are expected to take full advantage of that on Saturday.
After two consecutive wins, the away side will be confident and they have beaten Neville's team once before this season, suggesting that they are favourites for this weekend's clash.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 47.34%. A win for Inter Miami had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.11%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Inter Miami win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
