Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central African Republic win with a probability of 76.52%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central African Republic win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.88%) and 3-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.27%), while for a Papua New Guinea win it was 0-1 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Central African Republic would win this match.