Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 60.63%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 16.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.