Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 68.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.98%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Almeria |
68.49% ( -0.29) | 18.88% ( 0.11) | 12.62% ( 0.18) |
Both teams to score 48.67% ( 0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.65% ( -0.04) | 43.34% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.25% ( -0.04) | 65.74% ( 0.04) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.4% ( -0.09) | 11.59% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.43% ( -0.19) | 36.57% ( 0.19) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.05% ( 0.27) | 44.95% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.11% ( 0.21) | 80.89% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Almeria |
2-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 11.22% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.67% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 8.69% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 3.74% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0) Other @ 3.53% Total : 68.48% | 1-1 @ 8.98% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.21% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.83% Total : 18.88% | 0-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.21% Total : 12.62% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 21 |
2 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 17 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
4 | Mallorca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
5 | Villarreal | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
7 | Osasuna | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 11 |
8 | Rayo Vallecano | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
9 | AlavesAlaves | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 |
11 | Real BetisBetis | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
12 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
13 | GironaGirona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 |
14 | Sevilla | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
15 | Getafe | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
16 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
17 | Leganes | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
18 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 5 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 5 |
20 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 |
> La Liga Full Table |