League One

League One | Gameweek 38

Mar 12, 2022 at 3pm UK

Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion
3 - 2
Fleetwood

Niasse (61', 90'), Moult (84')
Hamer (37')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Oshilaja (18' og.), Butterworth (57')
Nsiala (14'), Garner (36')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burton Albion

Last Six:

Last Game: Burton Albion 1-2 Wycombe
Saturday, April 30 at 12.30pm in League One

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
15	Cheltenham Town	46	-14	56
16	Burton Albion	46	-16	53
17	Lincoln City	46	-8	52

Fleetwood Town

Last Six:

Last Game: Bolton 4-2 Fleetwood
Saturday, April 30 at 12.30pm in League One

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
19	Morecambe	46	-31	42
20	Fleetwood Town	46	-20	40
21	Gillingham	46	-34	40

We said: Burton Albion 2-2 Fleetwood Town

Given both sides' struggles for victories recently, we see a draw as the most likely outcome. They will each see it as a good opportunity to reverse their fortunes and chances could be abundant, given their shared defensive frailties, but we ultimately expect them to cancel one another out. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burton Albion win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 24.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burton Albion win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burton Albion would win this match.

Result
Burton Albion	Draw	Fleetwood Town
51.11%	24.3%	24.59%

Both teams to score 53.6%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.83%

48.17%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.67%

70.33%

Burton Albion Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.15%

18.85%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.7%

50.3%

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.05%

33.95%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.37%

70.63%

Score Analysis

Burton Albion 51.1%

Fleetwood Town 24.59%

Draw 24.3%

Burton Albion	Draw	Fleetwood Town
1-0 @ 10.67% 2-1 @ 9.63% 2-0 @ 8.91% 3-1 @ 5.35% 3-0 @ 4.96% 3-2 @ 2.89% 4-1 @ 2.23% 4-0 @ 2.07% 4-2 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.19% Total : 51.1%	1-1 @ 11.53% 0-0 @ 6.4% 2-2 @ 5.2% 3-3 @ 1.04% Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.3%	0-1 @ 6.91% 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-2 @ 3.73% 1-3 @ 2.24% 2-3 @ 1.87% 0-3 @ 1.34% Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.59%