League One

League One | Gameweek 36

Mar 2, 2024 at 3pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
3 - 0
Port Vale

Lopata (5' og.), Gayle (44'), Sibley (58')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ojo (40'), Massey (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Port Vale, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-2 Charlton
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Port Vale

All competitions

Last Game: Port Vale 2-2 Fleetwood
Tuesday, February 27 at 7.45pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Derby County 2-0 Port Vale

Derby may enter Saturday's contest off the back of consecutive defeats, but we think that they will do enough to get the better of a Port Vale side that has lost each of their last four away matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 14.63%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Port Vale
65.06% ( -0.01)	20.31%	14.63% ( 0.01)

Both teams to score 49.5% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.86% (

0.01)

45.14% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.51% (

0.01)

67.49% (

-0.01)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.91% (

-0)

13.09%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.29%

39.71%

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.96% (

0.02)

43.04% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.68% (

0.01)

79.32% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Derby County 65.05%

Port Vale 14.63%

Draw 20.31%

Derby County	Draw	Port Vale
2-0 @ 11.64% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 11.45% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.82% 3-0 @ 7.89% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.66% ( 0) 4-0 @ 4.01% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.38% 3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.63% 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.38% Other @ 2.96% Total : 65.05%	1-1 @ 9.66% 0-0 @ 5.63% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.14% ( 0) Other @ 0.88% Total : 20.31%	0-1 @ 4.75% 1-2 @ 4.07% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.16% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( 0) Other @ 1.5% Total : 14.63%