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League One
Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 33
Feb 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St James Park
Derby logo

Exeter
0 - 3
Derby


Aitchison (49'), Carroll (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Bird (24'), Mendez-Laing (52'), Barkhuizen (62')
Mendez-Laing (26'), Adams (43'), Cashin (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Wigan 1-2 Exeter
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Derby County

 Promotion-chasing Derby are set to go up against an in-form Exeter side, but after winning their last two head-to-head meetings, we think that the Rams will do enough to claim all three points on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
19.84% (0.184 0.18) 23% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07) 57.16% (-0.10400000000001 -0.1)
Both teams to score 51.48% (0.527 0.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.08% (0.554 0.55)47.93% (-0.55 -0.55)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.9% (0.508 0.51)70.1% (-0.503 -0.5)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.67% (0.517 0.52)38.33% (-0.511 -0.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.91% (0.492 0.49)75.09% (-0.486 -0.49)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.48% (0.16200000000001 0.16)16.53% (-0.157 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.73% (0.28899999999999 0.29)46.27% (-0.284 -0.28)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 19.84%
    Derby County 57.15%
    Draw 22.99%
Exeter CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.07% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-1 @ 5.24% (0.054 0.05)
2-0 @ 2.91% (0.015 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.68% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 1.51% (0.044 0.04)
3-0 @ 0.93% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 19.84%
1-1 @ 10.93% (-0.040000000000001 -0.04)
0-0 @ 6.33% (-0.146 -0.15)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.073 0.07)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.031 0.03)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.99%
0-1 @ 11.4% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-2 @ 10.26% (-0.13 -0.13)
1-2 @ 9.84% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-3 @ 6.16% (-0.042000000000001 -0.04)
1-3 @ 5.91% (0.042 0.04)
2-3 @ 2.83% (0.059 0.06)
0-4 @ 2.77% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 2.66% (0.033 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.28% (0.033 0.03)
0-5 @ 1% (0.003 0)
1-5 @ 0.96% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 57.15%

How you voted: Exeter vs Derby

Exeter City
15.8%
Draw
13.2%
Derby County
71.1%
38
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 15
Derby
2-0
Exeter
Mendez-Laing (30'), Washington (79')
Hourihane (34'), Sibley (55')

Watts (62')
> Preview
Apr 18, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 43
Exeter
1-2
Derby
Sparkes (78')
McGoldrick (52', 76')
> Preview
Oct 25, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 13
Derby
0-0
Exeter
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Wycombe WanderersWycombe19134243222143
2Birmingham CityBirmingham18133234161842
3Wrexham20125330131741
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield19113530181236
5Stockport CountyStockport2096532211133
6Reading199463028231
7Barnsley208662926330
8Bolton WanderersBolton189362829-130
9Lincoln CityLincoln207762625128
10Blackpool197572931-226
11Mansfield TownMansfield187472222025
12Stevenage187471517-225
13Peterborough UnitedPeterborough197393735224
14Charlton AthleticCharlton196671819-124
15Exeter CityExeter197391721-424
16Wigan AthleticWigan196581716123
17Rotherham UnitedRotherham186571920-123
18Leyton Orient196491920-122
19Northampton TownNorthampton205692129-821
20Bristol Rovers1963101728-1121
21Crawley TownCrawley1954102032-1219
22Cambridge UnitedCambridge1945102031-1117
23Burton Albion1926111630-1412
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury1932141939-2011
> League One Full Table


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