League One

League One | Gameweek 33

Feb 13, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
0 - 3
Derby

Aitchison (49'), Carroll (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Bird (24'), Mendez-Laing (52'), Barkhuizen (62')
Mendez-Laing (26'), Adams (43'), Cashin (68')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

Last Game: Wigan 1-2 Exeter
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 1-1 Shrewsbury
Saturday, February 10 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Exeter City 0-2 Derby County

Promotion-chasing Derby are set to go up against an in-form Exeter side, but after winning their last two head-to-head meetings, we think that the Rams will do enough to claim all three points on Tuesday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 57.16%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 19.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.26%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Exeter City win it was 1-0 (6.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Derby County
19.84% ( 0.18)	23% ( -0.07)	57.16% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 51.48% (

0.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.08% (

0.55)

47.93% (

-0.55)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.9% (

0.51)

70.1% (

-0.5)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.67% (

0.52)

38.33% (

-0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.91% (

0.49)

75.09% (

-0.49)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.48% (

0.16)

16.53% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.73% (

0.29)

46.27% (

-0.28)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 19.84%

Derby County 57.15%

Draw 22.99%

Exeter City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 1.68% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.5% Total : 19.84%	1-1 @ 10.93% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.99%	0-1 @ 11.4% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 10.26% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 9.84% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 6.16% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.91% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.83% ( 0.06) 0-4 @ 2.77% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.66% ( 0.03) 2-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1% ( 0) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.09% Total : 57.15%