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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
29.29% ( -1.45) | 27.2% ( -0.69) | 43.5% ( 2.13) |
Both teams to score 48.44% ( 1.31) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.35% ( 1.97) | 56.64% ( -1.98) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.39% ( 1.56) | 77.61% ( -1.57) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.31% ( -0.04) | 34.69% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.58% ( -0.04) | 71.41% ( 0.04) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.17% ( 2.05) | 25.83% ( -2.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.2% ( 2.69) | 60.79% ( -2.7) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.49% ( -0.74) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.02% ( -0.4) 3-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 1.77% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.19% Total : 29.29% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.7) 2-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.18) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 8.69% ( 0.34) 0-2 @ 8.21% ( 0.33) 1-3 @ 3.92% ( 0.37) 0-3 @ 3.7% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.19) 0-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.2% Total : 43.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |