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Championship header 2

League One
Charlton Athletic
League One | Gameweek 31
Feb 3, 2024 at 3pm UK
The Valley
Derby logo

Charlton
0 - 1
Derby


Ramsay (70'), Kanu (82')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Mendez-Laing (31')
Adams (41'), Cashin (51'), Sibley (68'), Vickers (90+1'), Hourihane (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Charlton Athletic and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Charlton Athletic

All competitions
Last Game: Blackpool 1-1 Charlton
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 2-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, January 27 at 3pm in League One

We said: Charlton Athletic 1-2 Derby County

 Derby have tended to enjoy themselves on their travels this season, and we think that they will produce another successful away performance when they face a Charlton side low on confidence following an 11-game winless league run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for Charlton Athletic had a probability of 25.13% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.61%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Charlton Athletic win was 2-1 (6.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Charlton AthleticDrawDerby County
25.13% (0.607 0.61) 22.76% (0.131 0.13) 52.11% (-0.737 -0.74)
Both teams to score 59.34% (0.224 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.15% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)40.85% (0.011000000000003 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.76% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)63.24% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Charlton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.44% (0.47799999999999 0.48)29.56% (-0.476 -0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.41% (0.578 0.58)65.59% (-0.57600000000001 -0.58)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.24% (-0.255 -0.25)15.76% (0.258 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.12% (-0.477 -0.48)44.88% (0.479 0.48)
Score Analysis
    Charlton Athletic 25.13%
    Derby County 52.11%
    Draw 22.76%
Charlton AthleticDrawDerby County
2-1 @ 6.39% (0.115 0.12)
1-0 @ 5.68% (0.077 0.08)
2-0 @ 3.46% (0.092 0.09)
3-1 @ 2.6% (0.08 0.08)
3-2 @ 2.4% (0.053 0.05)
3-0 @ 1.41% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 3.2%
Total : 25.13%
1-1 @ 10.49% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
2-2 @ 5.91% (0.053999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 4.66% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 22.76%
1-2 @ 9.69% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-1 @ 8.61% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
0-2 @ 7.95% (-0.138 -0.14)
1-3 @ 5.97% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
0-3 @ 4.9% (-0.13 -0.13)
2-3 @ 3.64% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.76% (-0.061 -0.06)
0-4 @ 2.26% (-0.081 -0.08)
2-4 @ 1.68% (-0.015 -0.02)
1-5 @ 1.02% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 52.11%

How you voted: Charlton vs Derby

Charlton Athletic
30.4%
Draw
4.3%
Derby County
65.2%
23
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Derby
2-0
Charlton
McGoldrick (9' pen.), Cashin (69')
> Preview
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Charlton
1-0
Derby
Taylor (62')
Sessegnon (73'), Morgan (76')

Mendez-Laing (51')
Dec 30, 2019 7.45pm
Gameweek 25
Derby
2-1
Charlton
Knight (10', 77')
Holmes (87')
Bielik (17')
Taylor (83' pen.)
Sarr (39'), Gallagher (69'), Solly (80'), Pratley (81'), Dempsey (90')
> Match Report
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 12
Charlton
3-0
Derby
Bonne (6'), Sarr (48'), Gallagher (67')
Forster-Caskey (65')

Waghorn (57'), Shinnie (64')
> Match Report
Apr 16, 2016 3pm
Charlton
0-1
Derby

Fox (91')
Russell (60')
Butterfield (66'), Keogh (81'), Christie (91')
rhs 2.0
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