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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 53.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 21.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lincoln City would win this match.
Result | ||
Lincoln City | Draw | Morecambe |
53.05% ( -0.05) | 25.21% ( 0.02) | 21.74% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 47.62% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.57% ( -0.04) | 54.43% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.2% ( -0.04) | 75.8% ( 0.03) |
Lincoln City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.48% ( -0.04) | 20.52% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.98% ( -0.06) | 53.02% ( 0.05) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.92% ( 0) | 40.08% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.27% ( 0) | 76.72% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Lincoln City | Draw | Morecambe |
1-0 @ 13.02% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.31% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.98% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.9% ( -0) Other @ 2.55% Total : 53.04% | 1-1 @ 11.9% 0-0 @ 8.22% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0) Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 7.52% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.44% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.66% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.31% 0-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 1.32% Total : 21.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |