A quick glance at the league table would suggest that Stevenage, at home, should be firm favourites for this match, but strange things can happen on the final day, and Cheltenham's needs are far greater than that of their hosts.
The Robins have won two of their last three - including a huge win over promotion-chasing Peterborough in midweek - and so should be full of belief heading into this match, despite matters being firmly out of their hands.
Stevenage have only won one of their last 11 games and have nothing to fight for, so we are expecting the visitors to hold up their end of the bargain in their bid to pull off one of the greatest escapes in EFL history. Whether it will be enough will depend on results elsewhere.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 54.41%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 20.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.83%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
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