League Two

League Two | Gameweek 25

Dec 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Kingsmeadow

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 3
Colchester

Davison (4', 52'), Lewis (42', 90+2'), Al-Hamadi (67')
Davison (71'), Biler (80'), Bugiel (81')

FT(HT: 2-2)

McGeehan (7'), Taylor (25'), Dallison (90+4')
Chilvers (39'), McGeehan (71')
McGeehan (89')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Colchester United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

Colchester United

All competitions

League Two

Last Game: MK Dons 1-0 Colchester
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Colchester United

Both sides suffered disappointing defeats on Boxing Day, so they will be keen to return with victories on Friday. However, Colchester have lost six of their last seven matches to slide perilously closer to the relegation zone. AFC Wimbledon, on the other hand, may view their surprising home defeat to Sutton as a blip. We expect them to win here and potentially move back into the playoff positions as a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Colchester United
63.65% ( 0.5)	20.16% ( -0.15)	16.19% ( -0.35)

Both teams to score 53.78% (

-0.28)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.63% (

0.02)

41.36% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.24% (

0.02)

63.76% (

-0.02)

AFC Wimbledon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.66% (

0.14)

12.34% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

61.84% (

0.3)

38.16% (

-0.3)

Colchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.35% (

-0.42)

38.64% (

0.42)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.61% (

-0.4)

75.39% (

0.4)

Score Analysis

AFC Wimbledon 63.64%

Colchester United 16.19%

Draw 20.16%

AFC Wimbledon	Draw	Colchester United
2-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.56% Total : 63.64%	1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.77% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.16%	0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.07% Total : 16.19%