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Championship header 2

League Two
AFC Wimbledon
League Two | Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Colchester United

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 3
Colchester

Davison (4', 52'), Lewis (42', 90+2'), Al-Hamadi (67')
Davison (71'), Biler (80'), Bugiel (81')
FT(HT: 2-2)
McGeehan (7'), Taylor (25'), Dallison (90+4')
Chilvers (39'), McGeehan (71')
McGeehan (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Colchester United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

Colchester United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 1-0 Colchester
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Colchester United

 Both sides suffered disappointing defeats on Boxing Day, so they will be keen to return with victories on Friday. However, Colchester have lost six of their last seven matches to slide perilously closer to the relegation zone. AFC Wimbledon, on the other hand, may view their surprising home defeat to Sutton as a blip. We expect them to win here and potentially move back into the playoff positions as a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
63.65% (0.496 0.5) 20.16% (-0.149 -0.15) 16.19% (-0.349 -0.35)
Both teams to score 53.78% (-0.278 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.63% (0.017000000000003 0.02)41.36% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.24% (0.016000000000005 0.02)63.76% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.66% (0.143 0.14)12.34% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.84% (0.302 0.3)38.16% (-0.304 -0.3)
Colchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.35% (-0.419 -0.42)38.64% (0.417 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.61% (-0.403 -0.4)75.39% (0.40000000000001 0.4)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 63.64%
    Colchester United 16.19%
    Draw 20.16%
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
2-0 @ 10.43% (0.1 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.98% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.28% (0.116 0.12)
3-1 @ 6.92% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.81% (0.082 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.62% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.29% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 1.59% (0.042 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.52% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 63.64%
1-1 @ 9.49% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.77% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 20.16%
0-1 @ 4.53% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-2 @ 4.51% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.16% (-0.052 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.5% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 16.19%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester

AFC Wimbledon
85.7%
Draw
0.0%
Colchester United
14.3%
7
Head to Head
Aug 15, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Colchester
0-2
AFC Wimbledon

Egbo (83'), Ihionvien (89'), Read (90+5')
Tilley (54', 85')
Ogundere (65'), Tilley (67'), Davison (74')
Dec 29, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Colchester
1-2
AFC Wimbledon
Akinde (51' pen.)
Davison (67'), Chislett (89')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 12
AFC Wimbledon
2-1
Colchester
Davison (47', 66' pen.)
Appiah (18')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale1610332416833
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe158431913628
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster168442218428
4Walsall1483327151227
5MK Dons168352719827
6Notts County167632315827
7Grimsby Town168171925-625
8Bradford CityBradford166552117423
9Gillingham157261612423
10AFC Wimbledon1371521111022
11Chesterfield165742920922
12BarrowBarrow166461715222
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood145632015521
14Salford City165651518-321
15Newport CountyNewport166281926-720
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham165382125-418
17Harrogate TownHarrogate165381422-818
18Accrington StanleyAccrington154562024-417
19Tranmere RoversTranmere144551017-717
20Bromley153751719-216
21Colchester UnitedColchester152851822-414
22Swindon TownSwindon162771825-713
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1633101429-1512
24Morecambe1624101427-1310
> League Two Full Table


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