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Championship header 2

League Two
AFC Wimbledon
League Two | Gameweek 25
Dec 29, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Kingsmeadow
Colchester United

AFC Wimbledon
5 - 3
Colchester

Davison (4', 52'), Lewis (42', 90+2'), Al-Hamadi (67')
Davison (71'), Biler (80'), Bugiel (81')
FT(HT: 2-2)
McGeehan (7'), Taylor (25'), Dallison (90+4')
Chilvers (39'), McGeehan (71')
McGeehan (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's League Two clash between AFC Wimbledon and Colchester United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AFC Wimbledon

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

Colchester United

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 1-0 Colchester
Tuesday, December 26 at 3pm in League Two

We said: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Colchester United

 Both sides suffered disappointing defeats on Boxing Day, so they will be keen to return with victories on Friday. However, Colchester have lost six of their last seven matches to slide perilously closer to the relegation zone. AFC Wimbledon, on the other hand, may view their surprising home defeat to Sutton as a blip. We expect them to win here and potentially move back into the playoff positions as a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.

Result
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
63.65% (0.496 0.5) 20.16% (-0.149 -0.15) 16.19% (-0.349 -0.35)
Both teams to score 53.78% (-0.278 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.63% (0.017000000000003 0.02)41.36% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.24% (0.016000000000005 0.02)63.76% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.66% (0.143 0.14)12.34% (-0.145 -0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.84% (0.302 0.3)38.16% (-0.304 -0.3)
Colchester United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.35% (-0.419 -0.42)38.64% (0.417 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.61% (-0.403 -0.4)75.39% (0.40000000000001 0.4)
Score Analysis
    AFC Wimbledon 63.64%
    Colchester United 16.19%
    Draw 20.16%
AFC WimbledonDrawColchester United
2-0 @ 10.43% (0.1 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.98% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
2-1 @ 9.92% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.28% (0.116 0.12)
3-1 @ 6.92% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
4-0 @ 3.81% (0.082 0.08)
4-1 @ 3.62% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.29% (-0.023 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.72% (-0.002 -0)
5-0 @ 1.59% (0.042 0.04)
5-1 @ 1.52% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 63.64%
1-1 @ 9.49% (-0.063000000000001 -0.06)
0-0 @ 4.77% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.059 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.04% (-0.019 -0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 20.16%
0-1 @ 4.53% (-0.056 -0.06)
1-2 @ 4.51% (-0.082 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.16% (-0.052 -0.05)
2-3 @ 1.5% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 16.19%

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Colchester

AFC Wimbledon
85.7%
Draw
0.0%
Colchester United
14.3%
7
Head to Head
Aug 15, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 3
Colchester
0-2
AFC Wimbledon

Egbo (83'), Ihionvien (89'), Read (90+5')
Tilley (54', 85')
Ogundere (65'), Tilley (67'), Davison (74')
Dec 29, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 24
Colchester
1-2
AFC Wimbledon
Akinde (51' pen.)
Davison (67'), Chislett (89')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 12
AFC Wimbledon
2-1
Colchester
Davison (47', 66' pen.)
Appiah (18')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall19124335191640
2Port Vale2010642619736
3Crewe AlexandraCrewe199732416834
4AFC Wimbledon19103631161533
5Doncaster RoversDoncaster209652823533
6Chesterfield2087535231231
7Grimsby Town2010192730-331
8MK Dons1893630201030
9Gillingham199282016429
10Bradford CityBradford197752419528
11Notts County197752521428
12Salford City197662019127
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham207582728-126
14Bromley195952323024
15Fleetwood TownFleetwood185852423123
16BarrowBarrow196581818023
17Newport CountyNewport196582128-723
18Colchester UnitedColchester1941052322122
19Tranmere RoversTranmere195681426-1221
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2063111730-1321
21Accrington StanleyAccrington194782634-819
22Swindon TownSwindon2037102334-1116
23Morecambe2035121936-1714
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1935111532-1714
> League Two Full Table


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