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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 50.49%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Notts County win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Notts County |
50.49% ( -0.69) | 22.6% ( 0.18) | 26.9% ( 0.51) |
Both teams to score 61.69% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.47% ( -0.4) | 38.52% ( 0.4) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.18% ( -0.42) | 60.82% ( 0.42) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.52% ( -0.38) | 15.48% ( 0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.64% ( -0.71) | 44.36% ( 0.71) |
Notts County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.99% ( 0.16) | 27.01% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.63% ( 0.21) | 62.36% ( -0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Notts County |
2-1 @ 9.52% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.92% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 3.88% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.86% Total : 50.49% | 1-1 @ 10.21% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.6% | 1-2 @ 6.68% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.01% Total : 26.9% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 30 |
2 | Walsall | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
3 | Notts County | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 26 |
4 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 26 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 24 |
6 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
8 | MK Dons | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 21 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 21 |
10 | Grimsby Town | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 21 |
11 | Gillingham | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 |
12 | Salford City | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 20 |
13 | AFC Wimbledon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 19 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 19 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 18 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 17 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 15 |
18 | Bromley | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 14 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 13 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 12 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 28 | -16 | 8 |
24 | Morecambe | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
> League Two Full Table |