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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.72%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Morecambe |
43.72% ( -0.32) | 24.38% ( 0.03) | 31.89% ( 0.29) |
Both teams to score 58.74% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.13% ( -0.04) | 43.87% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.74% ( -0.04) | 66.25% ( 0.04) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.79% ( -0.16) | 20.2% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.48% ( -0.26) | 52.51% ( 0.25) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.61% ( 0.16) | 26.39% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.46% ( 0.21) | 61.54% ( -0.21) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Morecambe |
2-1 @ 9.08% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.82% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.64% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.91% Total : 43.72% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.43% ( 0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.37% | 1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 7.1% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 4.73% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Gillingham | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 |
2 | Walsall | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
3 | BarrowBarrow | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
4 | Notts County | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
5 | Port Vale | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 |
7 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
8 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 13 |
9 | Chesterfield | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
10 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
11 | Grimsby Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 12 |
12 | Newport CountyNewport | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 12 |
13 | Bradford CityBradford | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 11 |
14 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
15 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 9 |
16 | Salford City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
17 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
18 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 8 |
19 | MK Dons | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
20 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
22 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 |
23 | Morecambe | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
24 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
> League Two Full Table |