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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 33.72% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.12%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 1-0 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Rochdale | Draw | Sutton United |
33.72% ( -0.02) | 27.71% ( -0.01) | 38.57% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 48.47% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.67% ( 0.04) | 57.33% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.84% ( 0.04) | 78.16% ( -0.04) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.12% ( 0.01) | 31.88% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.67% ( 0.01) | 68.32% ( -0.01) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.15% ( 0.04) | 28.85% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.28% ( 0.05) | 64.71% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Rochdale | Draw | Sutton United |
1-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.01% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.85% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.29% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0) Other @ 2.82% Total : 33.71% | 1-1 @ 13.07% 0-0 @ 9.2% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.64% ( 0) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.71% | 0-1 @ 11.43% 1-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.11% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.94% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.71% Total : 38.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |