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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 46.41%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
46.41% ( 0.03) | 24.74% ( -0.01) | 28.85% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 55.83% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.06% ( 0.03) | 46.94% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.81% ( 0.03) | 69.19% ( -0.03) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.71% ( 0.02) | 20.29% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.34% ( 0.04) | 52.66% ( -0.04) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.04% ( -0) | 29.96% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.93% ( -0) | 66.06% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 9.7% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.98% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.41% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.08% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.73% | 0-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.83% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.26% 0-3 @ 1.78% ( -0) Other @ 3.2% Total : 28.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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