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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41.88%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 32.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (8.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
41.88% ( 0.2) | 25.55% ( -0.01) | 32.56% ( -0.19) |
Both teams to score 54.99% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.13% ( -0) | 48.87% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.03% ( -0) | 70.96% ( 0) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.81% ( 0.1) | 23.18% ( -0.1) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.93% ( 0.15) | 57.07% ( -0.15) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.59% ( -0.13) | 28.41% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.84% ( -0.16) | 64.16% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.04% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 41.88% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 8.29% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.19% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.7% Total : 32.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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