MX23RW : Wednesday, December 18 11:00:59| >> :600:216278:216278:
Exeter City
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Sep 3, 2024 at 7pm UK
St James Park
Swindon Town

Exeter
2 - 1
Swindon

Francis (65'), Aitchison (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Cotterill (68')
Minturn (71'), Smith (78'), Delaney (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Exeter City and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Bolton 0-2 Exeter
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in League One

Swindon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Swindon 1-2 Notts County
Saturday, August 31 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Exeter City 1-0 Swindon Town

 Keeping things tight in defence remains a major problem for Kennedy's Swindon, who ought to be fighting an uphill battle against an Exeter side revelling in a revenge win over Bolton. Changes on both ends may lead to a slightly low-key affair, but the Grecians still have our thumbs-up to get the job done on home turf. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawSwindon Town
34.94% (0.123 0.12) 24.98% (0.29 0.29) 40.08% (-0.41099999999999 -0.41)
Both teams to score 57.59% (-1.01 -1.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.22% (-1.319 -1.32)45.78% (1.321 1.32)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.9% (-1.265 -1.27)68.09% (1.266 1.27)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.52% (-0.55 -0.55)25.47% (0.551 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.69% (-0.75700000000001 -0.76)60.31% (0.76 0.76)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.27% (-0.77800000000001 -0.78)22.72% (0.779 0.78)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.61% (-1.164 -1.16)56.39% (1.166 1.17)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 34.94%
    Swindon Town 40.08%
    Draw 24.97%
Exeter CityDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 8.02% (0.013 0.01)
1-0 @ 7.92% (0.317 0.32)
2-0 @ 5.41% (0.134 0.13)
3-1 @ 3.66% (-0.052 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.71% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-0 @ 2.47% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.25% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-2 @ 0.93% (-0.051 -0.05)
Other @ 2.58%
Total : 34.94%
1-1 @ 11.72% (0.2 0.2)
2-2 @ 5.94% (-0.129 -0.13)
0-0 @ 5.79% (0.319 0.32)
3-3 @ 1.34% (-0.084 -0.08)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.97%
1-2 @ 8.69% (-0.049000000000001 -0.05)
0-1 @ 8.58% (0.282 0.28)
0-2 @ 6.36% (0.065 0.07)
1-3 @ 4.29% (-0.126 -0.13)
0-3 @ 3.14% (-0.041 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.94% (-0.134 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.59% (-0.085 -0.09)
0-4 @ 1.16% (-0.043 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.09% (-0.077 -0.08)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 40.08%

How you voted: Exeter vs Swindon

Exeter City
82.8%
Draw
7.8%
Swindon Town
9.4%
64
Head to Head
Nov 21, 2023 7pm
Group Stage
Swindon
0-1
Exeter
Wildschut (6')
Diabate (82'), Harper (83')
Mar 8, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Exeter
3-1
Swindon
Brown (17'), Grounds (26'), Jay (81')
Payne (90+3')
Davison (25'), Iandolo (73')
> Preview
Feb 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 30
Swindon
1-2
Exeter
Tomlinson (58')
Brown (84'), Dieng (88')
Oct 6, 2020 7pm
Group Stage
Swindon
3-4
Exeter
Smith (61', 85'), Palmer (90+2')
Grant (43')
Kite (4'), Seymour (7' pen.), Atangana (63'), Hartridge (68')
Sweeney (78')
Feb 1, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 31
Swindon
2-1
Exeter
Doyle (20'), Hope (45')
Doughty (63')
Williams (34')
Bowman (36')
rhs 2.0
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