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Swansea logo
Championship | Gameweek 43
Jul 12, 2020 at 1.30pm UK
Liberty Stadium
Leeds logo

Swansea
0 - 1
Leeds


Brewster (29'), Fulton (33')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Hernandez (89')
Klich (31'), Harrison (75'), Hernandez (90')

Preview: Swansea City vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Swansea City and Leeds United, including team news and predicted lineups.

Leeds United are now potentially within a couple of victories of automatic promotion from the Championship as they prepare for Sunday's visit to Swansea City.

The Whites regained top spot with a thumping win over Stoke City on Thursday, while Swansea also picked up a vital win in midweek to remain on course for the playoffs.


Match preview

Leeds United players celebrate during their victory over Stoke on July 9, 2020© Reuters

The jibes Leeds faced on the back of their 2-0 loss to Cardiff City on last month's return to action were inevitable, and somewhat justified, given their recent history.

United have gained a tag for being the victims of their own demise - or 'bottlers' as rival fans put it - best epitomised by last season's collapse and playoff failure.

Things have been different in Marcelo Bielsa's second campaign at Elland Road, however, with the Whites taking 10 points from the last 12 since the defeat to Cardiff.

That leaves them six points clear of third-placed Brentford with four games to go, meaning that three wins will definitely make certain of top-flight football.

Leeds head to the Liberty Stadium on the back of three away wins in their last four matches, the exception being the loss to Cardiff on their last visit to South Wales.

Swansea players celebrate scoring against Sheffield Wednesday on July 5, 2020© Reuters

Swansea will certainly not make life easy for the pacesetters, of course, the Swans having won back-to-back matches to revive their promotion campaign.

Steve Cooper's side are now a point behind bitter rivals Cardiff - who play away at Fulham on Friday evening - in the final playoff spot.

The Swans have lost just two of their last 11 home league matches, most recently beating Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 last weekend, and will be looking to keep their momentum going.

A victory on Sunday will also see Swansea complete a league double over Leeds for the first time in their history.

With crunch games against Nottingham Forest and Bristol City also still to come, before a final-day trip to Reading, Swansea need every point possible in the final run-in.

Swansea City's Championship form: DWLDWW

Leeds United's Championship form: WLWDWW


Team News

Leeds United's Pablo Hernandez pictured in February 2020© Reuters

Swansea welcome Jordan Garrick back from suspension and his fresh legs could come in handy, though Cooper will be reluctant to change a winning formula.

Mike van der Hoorn is one of those in contention to return to the side in the backline, with the Swans expected to retain a five-man defence.

Ben Wilmot and Joe Rodon remain absent through injury, meanwhile, with neither player expected to play any further part this season.

As for Leeds, Pablo Hernandez has been tipped to return to the side in place of Tyler Roberts.

The former Swansea ace has the best minutes-per-goal involvement ratio of any Leeds player away from home in the Championship this season (150).

Bielsa has showed faith in Patrick Bamford throughout the season and the striker is in good form thanks to four goals in his last six matches.

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Cabango, Guehi, De Hoorn; Roberts, Fulton, Grimes, Bidwell; Gallagher; Ayew, Brewster

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Cooper, White, Dallas; Phillips; Costa, Hernandez, Klich, Harrison; Bamford


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Swansea City 1-1 Leeds United

Both teams have won back-to-back matches and have a clear target in mind heading into the final four rounds of fixtures. Leeds have not beat Swansea away from home since 1964 and we can see that run continuing this weekend.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 54.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Swansea City had a probability of 21.41%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.86%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.23%), while for a Swansea City win it was 1-0 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Leeds United in this match.


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Leeds United players celebrate during their victory over Stoke on July 9, 2020
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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