Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Gerard Houllier
Lyon2 - 3Marseille
We said: Lyon 1-2 Marseille
Form can often go out the window in such fiercely-fought derby matches, but the start Marseille have made means they are full value as favourites in this one. Lyon's suspect defence matched against Marseille's prolific attack should give the visitors the edge, despite the fact they will be playing against a raucous atmosphere with no away fans in attendance. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lyon | Draw | Marseille |
34.37% ( 0.13) | 24.21% ( -0.01) | 41.41% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 60.22% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
