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Ligue 1
Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 5
Sep 22, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Gerard Houllier
Marseille

Lyon
2 - 3
Marseille

Caleta-Car (53'), Cherki (90+3')
Mata (45+1'), Lacazette (59'), Caleta-Car (90+3'), Cherki (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Lirola (69'), Garcia (82'), Rowe (90+5')
Balerdi (1'), De Zerbi (45+8'), Maupay (90+3')
Balerdi (5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lyon

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lens 0-0 Lyon
Sunday, September 15 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Nice
Saturday, September 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-2 Marseille

 Form can often go out the window in such fiercely-fought derby matches, but the start Marseille have made means they are full value as favourites in this one. Lyon's suspect defence matched against Marseille's prolific attack should give the visitors the edge, despite the fact they will be playing against a raucous atmosphere with no away fans in attendance. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 34.37% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.21%). The likeliest Lyon win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
34.37% (0.134 0.13) 24.21% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01) 41.41% (-0.11 -0.11)
Both teams to score 60.22% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.7% (0.116 0.12)42.31% (-0.104 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.29% (0.114 0.11)64.71% (-0.10300000000001 -0.1)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.83% (0.13200000000001 0.13)24.17% (-0.12 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.51% (0.181 0.18)58.49% (-0.171 -0.17)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.41% (0.00099999999999056 0)20.59% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.87% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)53.13% (0.016999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 34.37%
    Marseille 41.41%
    Draw 24.21%
LyonDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 7.93% (0.018 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.07% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 5.02% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.75% (0.022 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.017 0.02)
3-0 @ 2.38% (0.014 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.33% (0.013 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 2.88%
Total : 34.37%
1-1 @ 11.16% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 6.27% (0.013000000000001 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.98% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.56% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 24.21%
1-2 @ 8.83% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-2 @ 6.21% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-3 @ 4.65% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.3% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 3.27% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
2-4 @ 1.3% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.29% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 41.41%

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
22.9%
Draw
14.4%
Marseille
62.7%
118
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 20
Lyon
1-0
Marseille
Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')

Ounahi (75')
> Preview
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Oliveira (21'), Murillo (25'), Aubameyang (55')
Ounahi (49')

Lovren (21'), Diawara (87')
> Preview
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Lyon
1-2
Marseille
Lacazette (68')
Under (44'), Gusto (90+2' og.)
> Preview
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Marseille
1-0
Lyon
Gigot (43')
> Preview
May 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Marseille
0-3
Lyon

Sampaoli (28'), Lopez (57'), Gueye (71')
Lukeba (55'), Dembele (76'), Toko Ekambi (88')
Dembele (60')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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