Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 20

Feb 4, 2024 at 7.45pm UK

Parc Olympique Lyonnais

Lyon
1 - 0
Marseille

Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ounahi (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lyon

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lyon 2-3 Rennes
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Monaco
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

There is no denying that Lyon are in a mess right now, but they have shown significant signs of improvement under the guidance of Pierre Sage, as they showed last week when they almost completed a comeback from three goals down. Marseille are on a solid run coming into this match, but they have been leaky on the road this term and have managed just one win in their nine away games. Despite the gap in the table, this looks like a fairly level matchup on paper, and we feel there will be nothing to split these rivals at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
Lyon	Draw	Marseille
35.15% ( 0.76)	25.09% ( 0.02)	39.76% ( -0.78)

Both teams to score 57.24% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.75% (

0.04)

46.25% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.45% (

0.04)

68.55% (

-0.03)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.42% (

0.46)

25.58% (

-0.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.55% (

0.63)

60.45% (

-0.62)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.91% (

-0.37)

23.09% (

0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.06% (

-0.55)

56.94% (

0.55)

Score Analysis

Lyon 35.15%

Marseille 39.76%

Draw 25.09%

Lyon	Draw	Marseille
1-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 3.66% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.57% Total : 35.15%	1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.31% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.09%	0-1 @ 8.66% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 4.23% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.05) 0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.16% Total : 39.76%