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Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 20
Feb 4, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Marseille

Lyon
1 - 0
Marseille

Lacazette (37')
O'Brien (40'), Matic (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ounahi (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lyon 2-3 Rennes
Friday, January 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-2 Monaco
Saturday, January 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Lyon 1-1 Marseille

There is no denying that Lyon are in a mess right now, but they have shown significant signs of improvement under the guidance of Pierre Sage, as they showed last week when they almost completed a comeback from three goals down. Marseille are on a solid run coming into this match, but they have been leaky on the road this term and have managed just one win in their nine away games. Despite the gap in the table, this looks like a fairly level matchup on paper, and we feel there will be nothing to split these rivals at the final whistle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 39.76%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 35.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.

Result
LyonDrawMarseille
35.15% (0.759 0.76) 25.09% (0.024000000000001 0.02) 39.76% (-0.78 -0.78)
Both teams to score 57.24% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.75% (0.038000000000004 0.04)46.25% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.45% (0.035 0.04)68.55% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.42% (0.461 0.46)25.58% (-0.457 -0.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.55% (0.625 0.63)60.45% (-0.62 -0.62)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.91% (-0.369 -0.37)23.09% (0.375 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.06% (-0.549 -0.55)56.94% (0.553 0.55)
Score Analysis
    Lyon 35.15%
    Marseille 39.76%
    Draw 25.09%
LyonDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 8.05% (0.093000000000001 0.09)
2-1 @ 8.05% (0.11 0.11)
2-0 @ 5.49% (0.134 0.13)
3-1 @ 3.66% (0.097 0.1)
3-2 @ 2.68% (0.042 0.04)
3-0 @ 2.5% (0.093 0.09)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.049 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.91% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 35.15%
1-1 @ 11.8% (0.010000000000002 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.91% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.9% (0.016 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.31% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.09%
0-1 @ 8.66% (-0.109 -0.11)
1-2 @ 8.65% (-0.090999999999999 -0.09)
0-2 @ 6.34% (-0.151 -0.15)
1-3 @ 4.23% (-0.092 -0.09)
0-3 @ 3.1% (-0.11 -0.11)
2-3 @ 2.88% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-4 @ 1.55% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.14% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-4 @ 1.06% (-0.02 -0.02)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 39.76%

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
24.0%
Draw
36.0%
Marseille
40.0%
100
Head to Head
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Oliveira (21'), Murillo (25'), Aubameyang (55')
Ounahi (49')

Lovren (21'), Diawara (87')
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 32
Lyon
1-2
Marseille
Lacazette (68')
Under (44'), Gusto (90+2' og.)
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 14
Marseille
1-0
Lyon
Gigot (43')
May 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Marseille
0-3
Lyon

Sampaoli (28'), Lopez (57'), Gueye (71')
Lukeba (55'), Dembele (76'), Toko Ekambi (88')
Dembele (60')
Feb 1, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 14
Lyon
2-1
Marseille
Shaqiri (76'), Dembele (89')
Guendouzi (10')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG15114040122837
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239


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