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Championship | Gameweek 5

Oct 17, 2020 at 3pm UK

Kenilworth Road Stadium

Luton
0 - 2
Stoke

Hylton (20'), Ruddock (25')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Fletcher (46'), Powell (55')
Davies (20'), Batth (33')

Preview: Luton Town vs. Stoke City - prediction, team news, lineups

By Olly AllenPublished: 15 October 2020 1:30 PM

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship fixture between Luton Town and Stoke City, including predictions and team news.

Nathan Jones will come up against his former club when his Luton Town side host Stoke City on Saturday.

The Hatters are currently four points ahead of the Potters in the Championship table, having made an impressive start to the season.

Match preview

Luton manager Nathan Jones pictured on June 27, 2020 © Reuters

Jones's 10-month tenure at the bet365 Stadium in 2019 was one to forget, as he won only six out of 38 matches and left the club second from bottom in the Championship.

He returned to Luton in May and has since lost just twice in 13 league games, getting fans back on side after he controversially left Kenilworth Road for Stoke when Luton were second in League One.

Before the international break, the Hatters won three of their opening four games of the season, most recently beating Wycombe Wanderers 2-0 thanks to goals from Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu and Elliot Lee.

They have lost just three times at home in 2020, with James Collins scoring a 91st-minute penalty to earn a 1-1 draw when Stoke last visited Bedfordshire in February.

The result continued Luton's run of eight games without a win against the Potters which dates back to December 2000.

Stoke, now under the stewardship of Michael O'Neill, have started the campaign with one win, two draws and a defeat as they look to make it back to the Premier League at the third time of asking.

Nick Powell's scruffy late equaliser rescued a point last time out in a 1-1 draw with Birmingham City – only their second league goal of the season. This is despite having the highest average possession in the Championship at 56.5%.

Their recent away form is good, with just two defeats in their last nine games on the road – although those losses were 5-0 and 3-0 thrashings at the hands of Leeds United and Wigan Athletic respectively.

Luton Town Championship form: WWLW
Luton Town form (all competitions): WWWLLW

Stoke City Championship form: DLWD
Stoke City form (all competitions): WLWWWD

Team News

Stoke City players celebrate scoring against Birmingham City on October 4, 2020 © Reuters

Nathan Jones is unlikely to make too many changes to a winning team, but Elliot Lee could come back in to start after scoring as a substitute against Wycombe.

Tom Lockyer is aiming to be fit for the game after missing out against the Chairboys and sitting out Wales's games in the international break.

Nick Powell is another player who scored as a substitute two weeks ago, so could replace Tashan Oakley-Boothe in Stoke's starting lineup.

Summer signing Steven Fletcher is still yet to score but his performances have warranted a continued place in the side. The debate comes as to who partners him upfront – Lee Gregory or Tyrese Campbell.

Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Cranie, Pearson, Bradley, Norrington-Davies; Rea; Cornick, Berry, Mpanzu, LuaLua; Lee

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Davies; Chester, Souttar, Fox; Smith, Mikel, Clucas, Powell, McClean; Fletcher, Gregory

SM words green background

We say: Luton Town 1-1 Stoke City

On paper, Stoke's team is packed with more quality and experience than Luton's, but Nathan Jones is getting the best out of the Hatters and will feel he has a point to prove against his old side. A tight game lies in store.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 43.19%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 1-0 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.