The Portland Timbers can do themselves a world of good in their playoff quest as they host Minnesota United at Providence Park on Saturday.
Coming into this match, Portland are clinging to the final postseason position in the Western Conference of Major League Soccer, sitting only two points behind the Loons for fifth.
Match preview
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A sixth successive trip to the MLS Cup playoffs is a distinct possibility for the Timbers right now, who have won three straight matches by a margin of 2-1, edging Atlanta United last Sunday.
While they have given themselves a chance to return to the postseason, with only four matches remaining in 2022, Portland can ill-afford too many more slip-ups.
The Los Angeles Galaxy are breathing down their neck for that final playoff spot, trailing the Timbers by just three points with two games in hand, and also ahead in a potential tiebreaker situation, with one more victory than the 2021 MLS Cup runners-up.
Throughout most of the regular season, the Timbers have been among the streakiest clubs in MLS, winning and losing consecutive games on two occasions, combined with 12 draws, the most in the Western Conference.
Under the guidance of head coach Giovanni Savarese since 2018, this team have often saved their best performances for the tail end of a regular season campaign.
They have not suffered more than one defeat in their final four regular-season affairs since the Venezuelan took charge, perhaps a good omen seeing as they only have four matches left in 2022.
Half of their goals scored on their current three-game winning streak have come from 12 yards away, scoring twice from the penalty spot against the Five Stripes, as 20.4% of their goals scored this season (10 of 49) have come via a penalty, the highest such percentage in the league.
They have points in eight straight matches played at Providence Park, losing only two games in Portland all season, possessing the third-best home record in MLS.
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The idea that good things come in threes is probably not a theory that Adrian Heath and his Minnesota side can get behind at the moment.
That is because the Loons have conceded three goals in back-to-back domestic fixtures, conceding three times in three minutes last Saturday at home in a 3-0 defeat to Dallas.
Their current run illuminates exactly what can happen when you get a little too complacent and comfortable in this league.
Minnesota looked to be sitting pretty before those two defeats earning points in 10 of their previous 11 MLS affairs, but ending last month with a 3-0 loss at Real Salt Lake.
While their form is poor at the moment, it is by no means a disaster as their strong showing between the end of June and the end of August has given them some breathing room in the Western Conference.
Currently, Minnesota hold a five-point playoff cushion in the West, while only two points separate them from the third-place Toros.
Despite often employing the same setup at the start of matches, Heath has done well to mix in pressing and other tactics, while also managing to get the best out of numerous players, as this team have shown they do not need to depend solely on one individual.
They might need to rely on that depth this weekend after their top contributor was taken off against Dallas because of a knock, adding to this team's growing list of injuries.
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Team News
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Santiago Moreno and Dairon Asprilla both tallied from the penalty spot for Portland last weekend, the fourth time Asprilla has scored from 12 yards away this year, as he is tied for second on the team in goals alongside Sebastian Blanco with seven, two fewer than Jaroslaw Niezgoda.
Claudio Bravo continues to lead the league for tackles won (70), Eryk Williamson is second on the Timbers for assists with six, one fewer than Blanco, while Bill Tuiloma has not found the back of the net since he tallied the only goal for his side in a 2-1 defeat to Inter Miami at the end of May.
Nathan Fogaca is questionable due to a right ankle sprain, Blake Bodily has a sore right hamstring, Justin Rasmussen is dealing with a right adductor issue and Felipe Mora continues to nurse a left knee injury.
Dayne St. Clair has conceded five goals in his last two games for Minnesota, as he played the full 90 minutes against the Toros after being replaced by Tyler Miller in the second half at Rio Tinto Stadium, while Luis Amarilla had two goals and an assist in their 4-4 draw against the Timbers earlier this season.
Four of the six goals scored by Franco Fragapane in 2022 have come away from home, and half of the tallies from Bongokuhle Hlongwane have occurred on the road.
Emanuel Reynoso, who leads the Loons in goals (10) and assists (five) this season, was replaced by Mender Garcia last weekend after suffering an apparent ankle injury, Eric Dick has a sore back and Bakaye Dibassy has a thigh issue.
Callum Montgomery is dealing with a sore thigh himself, Jacori Hayes has a lower leg problem, Hassani Dotson is out with a knee injury and Fragapane will be suspended after receiving two cautions in their previous match.
Portland Timbers possible starting lineup:
Ivacic; Van Rankin, Tuiloma, Zuparic, Bravo; Moreno, D. Chara, Y. Chara; Paredes, Blanco; Niezgoda
Minnesota United possible starting lineup:
St. Clair; Fisher, Boxall, Lawrence, Benitez; Arriaga, Trapp, Lod; Danladi, Amarilla, Hlongwane
We say: Portland Timbers 2-1 Minnesota United
The status of Reynoso will be a major storyline heading into this encounter, but whether he plays or not, we would still back Portland to win this match, given the momentum they have heading into this weekend along with their ability to consistently elevate their play at the most opportune of moments.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
