Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 59.07%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 19.83%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 1-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Portland Timbers win it was 1-2 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.