Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.