Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 46.31%. A win for DC United had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.