Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 37.2%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
