Norwegian club Molde welcome Belgian outfit Cercle Brugge to the Aker Stadion for the first leg of their Europa League third qualifying round tie on Thursday evening.
The two teams meet for the very first time and are bidding to advance to the main stage of the newly-expanded 2024-25 Europa League.
Match preview
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Despite finishing fifth in the 2023 Eliteserien, Molde ended the campaign on a high by winning the Norwegian Cup for the sixth time in their history, earning the Blue Rascals a place in the second qualifying round for the 2024-25 Europa League.
Danish side Silkeborg were standing in their way, but Erling Moe's men secured a 5-4 aggregate win to reach the third qualifying round, following up a 3-1 first-leg victory on home soil with a nervy 3-2 defeat in last week's reverse fixture.
Molde's continental triumph is one of few positives that Moe and co can take from the last four weeks, as his side have suffered a dip in form on the domestic front, accumulating just one point from their last three league games and losing their last two in the process.
A slender 1-0 away defeat to Viking just over a week ago represented their fifth loss in the Norwegian top flight this season and leaves them sitting fourth in the table after 17 matches, three points behind Viking in second and 12 points adrift of runaway leaders Bodo/Glimt.
Before facing Lillestrom on Sunday, Molde will turn their attention to Thursday's Europa League qualifier against Cercle Brugge as they bid to qualify for the main competition for the second successive year.
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Cercle Brugge are competing in the Europa League qualifiers for just the second time in their history after finishing fourth in the Belgian Pro League Champions' Playoffs last season.
Groen en Zwart edged past Kilmarnock 2-1 on aggregate in the second qualifying round, with Thibo Somers's first-half strike securing a narrow 1-0 second-leg victory last week after the two teams played out a 1-1 first-leg draw in Scotland.
Miron Muslic's side remain on course to reach the main stage of a European competition for the very first time, but they enter Thursday's contest on the back of consecutive defeats in their opening two Belgian Pro League matches of the new season.
After suffering a disappointing 3-0 away defeat to Westerlo just over a week ago, Cercle Brugge were condemned to a 2-1 home loss to Kortrijk on Sunday. Somers scored on the stroke of half time to cancel out an early opener from Nacho Ferri, but a second-half goal from Mark Mampassi ultimately secured maximum points for Kortrijk.
Muslic lamented his side's "sloppy" performance and believes that too many of his players have been distracted by interest from other clubs - a concern for the Belgian outfit with just over four weeks of the transfer window remaining.
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Team News
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Molde will be without the services of injured trio Fredrik Gulbrandsen, Veton Berisha and Johan Bakke and it remains to be seen when they will be fit to return to the first-team fold.
Kristoffer Haugen was forced off in the 55th minute of Molde's defeat to Viking and subsequently missed last week's second-leg clash with Silkeborg; the versatile midfielder remains a doubt for Thursday's fixture.
Kristian Eriksen and Magnus Wolff Eikrem have both scored eight Eliteserien goals so far this season - the joint-most in the division - and the attacking pair are set to continue their partnership in the final third.
As for Cercle Brugge, summer signing Ibrahim Diakite is yet to make his debut for the club as he is nursing a thigh injury which is set to keep the right-back sidelined for Thursday's contest.
Midfielder Nils De Wilde is also in the treatment room with a hamstring injury, while teenage winger Malamine Efekele is doubtful with a knock.
After scoring two goals in his last two games, captain Somers is set to link up with Abdoul Kader Ouattara and Kazeem Olaigbe in attack as Kevin Denkey continues to lead the line.
Molde possible starting lineup:
Posiadala; Oyvann, Hagelskjaer, Lund; Stenevik, Kaasa, Daehli, Breivik, Lovik; Eriksen, Eikrem
Cercle Brugge possible starting lineup:
Warleson; Ravych, Daland, Popovic, Nazinho; Agyekum, Van Der Bruggen; Ouattara, Somers, Olaigbe; Denkey
We say: Molde 1-1 Cercle Brugge
Both teams enter Thursday's contest having edged themselves into the third qualifying round amidst struggling on the domestic front.
Taking into account the fact that both sides are not quite firing on all cylinders, a cagey first-leg draw could be on the cards which would keep the tie nicely poised ahead of next week's second leg.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 56.29%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 22.34% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.1%) and 1-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Molde would win this match.
Oliver Thomas
