Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 60.95%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 16.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.97%) and 1-2 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-0 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
