Yankee Stadium will host a Leagues Cup contest for the first time since 2021 on Sunday when New York City FC welcome Queretaro to the Bronx.
In this tournament last year, the Pigeons were eliminated in the round of 32, losing 1-0 to the New York Red Bulls, while Los Albiazules made it to the quarter-finals before the Philadelphia Union defeated them 2-1.
Match preview
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July has been a difficult month for the Boys in Blue to nab three points, winning just one of their five MLS contests (2-0 over CF Montreal).
Since the start of the 2023 domestic campaign, they have only won two domestic encounters in July, both against CF Montreal, failing to concede in either of those contests.
Nick Cushing's men have only suffered one defeat in their last six MLS affairs (2-1 at Austin FC) and have lost just two league fixtures at home since April.
Two of their three home defeats in MLS this year occurred at Yankee Stadium, while they lost their only Leagues Cup encounter there in 2021 on penalties to Pumas in the quarter-final stage.
To this stage of the domestic season, the Pigeons have lost three times when scoring the opening goal but have never suffered a Leagues Cup defeat within 90 minutes when doing so.
Their only competitive victory against a Mexican opponent came in 2022 at Yankee Stadium, when they claimed a 2-0 victory over Atlas to capture the Campeones Cup.
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It has been a rough start to the 2024 Apertura campaign for Queretaro, who are bottom of the table without a single point after four matchdays.
Among their many deficiencies this season has been their poor defensive shape, conceding the joint most goals in the first phase of the Liga MX campaign.
Mauro Gerk's men are winless in eight consecutive matches across all competitions, with their last victory coming on matchday 14 of the Clausura campaign in April, claiming a 2-0 away win over Club Leon.
So far in the 2024 Apertura season, Queretaro have had to fight from behind in each of their four encounters and have not won a competitive game when conceding the opening goal since defeating Atlas at the end of March (3-2).
Queretaro began their first Leagues Cup campaign last year about as poorly as one could imagine, losing 5-1 to the Philadelphia Union, but they recovered to defeat Tijuana 1-0, advancing out of the group stage and eventually making it all the way to the last eight.
Los Gallos Blancos have never beaten an MLS side at the Leagues Cup within 90 minutes, though they knocked out the New England Revolution on penalties in the round of 16 last year after that match ended in a 1-1 draw.
Team News
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In their 1-1 draw with Orlando City last week, NYCFC were without Andres Perea through injury, Malachi Jones continues to recover from a broken tibia and Kevin O'Toole did not make the bench against the Lions.
James Sands returned to the lineup from suspension, Thiago Martins played the full 90 minutes after being rested against Atlanta United (2-2 draw) and Tayvon Gray came on as a substitute against Orlando City after sitting out of their match with the Five Stripes.
Their only goal against the Lions came courtesy of Hannes Wolf, his fifth of the MLS campaign, while their joint top-goalscorer domestically this season, Santiago Rodriguez (eight goals), led them with two goals at this tournament last year.
Rubio Rubin, who is currently on loan from MLS side Real Salt Lake, is a major doubt for Queretaro on Sunday because of a knock.
From matchday three to four of the Liga MX campaign, we saw four newcomers to their starting 11, including Oscar Manzanarez, Sebastian Hernandez, Lucas Rodriguez and Samuel Sosa.
Victor Lopez came on as a substitute for Sosa just before the hour mark last Saturday, scoring for the first time in the Apertura this year.
New York City FC possible starting lineup:
Freese; Gray, Martins, Risa, McFarlane; Parks, Sands; Magno, Rodriguez, Wolf; Martinez
Queretaro possible starting lineup:
Allison; Mendoza, Vazquez, Manzanarez, Venegas, Hernandez; Barrera, Escamilla, Rio, Medina; Sosa
We say: New York City FC 2-0 Queretaro
More often than not this season, New York City have managed to earn results domestically and bounce back from poor performances.
In contrast, Queretaro have consistently shot themselves in the foot, and we believe the home side will make them pay for their defensive frailties.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 61.57%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Queretaro had a probability of 17.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 1-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Queretaro win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
