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Notts County
National League | Gameweek 23
Jan 2, 2022 at 3pm UK
Meadow Lane
Wrexham AFC

Notts County
3 - 1
Wrexham

Wootton (10' pen., 39'), Richardson (67')
Cameron (17'), Smith (49'), Lacey (75')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Hall-Johnson (4')
Hosannah (21'), Tozer (68'), Hayden (68')
Lennon (9')

Preview: Notts County vs. Wrexham - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's National League clash between Notts County and Wrexham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two National League promotion contenders convene on Sunday, as Notts County host ambitious Wrexham at Meadow Lane.

The in-form sides kick off 2022 separated by just four points in the table, as the hosts seek to reduce their deficit with a fourth win on the spin, while their visitors have won four straight games without conceding a goal.


Match preview

Phil Parkinson, now in charge of Wrexham, pictured in January 2020© Reuters

In recent weeks, Wrexham have matched an increased media profile since their takeover with a strong series of results, raising hopes of finally earning promotion back to the EFL.

Undoubtedly, Phil Parkinson's squad is very much in the mix nearing the halfway point of the season, and sit just a point off the Conference Premier summit at the start of the new year.

With the top of the table being particularly congested - just five points separate leaders Chesterfield from the Dragons' next opponents Notts County, who are ninth - they have had to keep their foot on the accelerator.

Having won eight of their last ten matches in all competitions, Wrexham have certainly gone up a gear since the start of November, and have even won their last four by scoring nine times and keeping clean sheets each time.

In their most recent outing, on Tuesday, goals from defensive duo Aaron Hayden and Bryce Hosannah helped the Welsh outfit to secure maximum points at Altrincham to end 2021 with another impressive victory, following nearly three weeks out of league action due to cup commitments and the effects of COVID-19 on the festive schedule.

With nearly half the attendance in Lancashire made up of travelling Wrexham fans, a committed fanbase are sure to travel in numbers again on Sunday, when their team will encounter a Notts County side which has been sidelined since mid-December, after the Boxing Day fixture at King's Lynn was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch.

Head coach Ian Burchnall noted his frustration at a fixture being lost to the weather at a time when several have gone by the wayside due to the latest wave of the pandemic.

In fact, the final decision to call the game off came only an hour before kick-off despite County fans having already arrived at the stadium, so Burchnall will be particularly keen that a recent COVID-19 outbreak in the camp does not cause Sunday's fixture to be cancelled too.

The Magpies may meet one of the division's best-resourced sides this weekend, but they can at least draw on their own impressive form in the battle to win promotion.

Scoring eight times in their last three games has seen Notts pick up maximum points on each occasion, and like Wrexham, their most recent success came at the expense of Altrincham, with a 2-1 win in the FA Trophy third round on December 18.

That was the last time they appeared in competitive action, so Burchnall and company may have legitimate concerns about a lack of match fitness when they step back out at Meadow Lane.

Notts County National League form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Notts County form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Wrexham National League form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Wrexham form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Last time out, Phil Parkinson made just two changes to the side that took on Weymouth in their previous National League fixture, and most of that XI should again be retained.

Harry Lennon returned to Wrexham's back three at Altrincham and is set to feature again next to club captain Ben Tozer, while Jordan Ponticelli should lead the line alongside 10-goal top scorer Paul Mullin up front.

Striker Kwame Thomas enjoyed a goalscoring return from injury in the FA Trophy just before Christmas, and will hope to make an impact from the bench.

By contrast with their visitors, Notts County have been depleted by several COVID-19 cases in their camp ahead of Sunday's game, while they are also hampered by a handful of injuries and the suspension of forward Ruben Rodrigues.

Ian Burchnall has not revealed specific names, but the home side will be missing a number of players. He did, though, speak of the club's determination that the fixture should go ahead and has said they are "actively choosing" not to request a postponement.

Notts County possible starting lineup:
Slocombe; Brindley, Cameron, Chicksen; Taylor, O'Brien, Palmer, Roberts, Evans; Wootton, Sam

Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Lainton; Hall-Johnson, Hayden, Tozer; Lennon, Hosannah, Young, Jones, Davies; Mullin, Ponticelli


SM words green background

We say: Notts County 1-2 Wrexham

Though this had been shaping up to be an exciting affair between the oldest professional club in the world and the third oldest - also the best home team in the league against the best away - the hosts' current plight means that they will be outsiders from the start.

Wrexham will be in no mood to let Notts reduce their deficit in the standings, so should take advantage of their opponents' diminished squad and prolonged spell on the sidelines.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:474091:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9539:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 1-2 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Notts County vs Wrexham

Notts County
31.6%
Draw
10.5%
Wrexham
57.9%
19
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