National League | Gameweek 23

Jan 2, 2022 at 3pm UK

Meadow Lane

Notts County
3 - 1
Wrexham

Wootton (10' pen., 39'), Richardson (67')
Cameron (17'), Smith (49'), Lacey (75')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Hall-Johnson (4')
Hosannah (21'), Tozer (68'), Hayden (68')
Lennon (9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's National League clash between Notts County and Wrexham, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Notts County 1-2 Wrexham

Though this had been shaping up to be an exciting affair between the oldest professional club in the world and the third oldest - also the best home team in the league against the best away - the hosts' current plight means that they will be outsiders from the start. Wrexham will be in no mood to let Notts reduce their deficit in the standings, so should take advantage of their opponents' diminished squad and prolonged spell on the sidelines. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 39.34%. A win for Wrexham had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Wrexham win was 1-2 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.

Result
Notts County	Draw	Wrexham
39.34%	24.86%	35.8%

Both teams to score 58.16%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.9%

45.1%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.55%

67.45%

Notts County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.2%

22.79%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.5%

56.5%

Wrexham Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.33%

24.67%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.8%

59.2%

Score Analysis

Notts County 39.34%

Wrexham 35.8%

Draw 24.85%

Notts County	Draw	Wrexham
2-1 @ 8.6% 1-0 @ 8.31% 2-0 @ 6.15% 3-1 @ 4.24% 3-0 @ 3.03% 3-2 @ 2.97% 4-1 @ 1.57% 4-0 @ 1.12% 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.25% Total : 39.34%	1-1 @ 11.63% 2-2 @ 6.02% 0-0 @ 5.62% 3-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.85%	1-2 @ 8.14% 0-1 @ 7.87% 0-2 @ 5.51% 1-3 @ 3.8% 2-3 @ 2.81% 0-3 @ 2.57% 1-4 @ 1.33% 2-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.79% Total : 35.8%