Panama can clinch a spot in the quarter-finals of the CONCACAF Nations League with a victory on Tuesday versus Guatemala at Estadio Rommel Fernandez.
On matchday three, the Panamanians came away with a narrow 2-1 victory at Curacao, putting them in second place in Group A on seven points, while Guatemala are three points behind them in fourth following a 3-2 defeat versus Trinidad and Tobago.
Match preview
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It has been a tough grind through the Nations League group stage thus far, but Panama have themselves in a position to make it beyond the group stage for the second successive time at this tournament.
At Curacao on matchday three, Los Canaleros did what they failed to do in Guatemala last month, pad their early lead with a late goal, which enabled them to claim a valuable three points on matchday three.
With Martinique right on their heels, a point behind them for a top-two position and a guaranteed place in the last eight, Panama are in a similar position to what they faced in the 2022-23 Nations League, as a defeat in their final game would end their hopes of lifting this trophy.
The Panamanians have stepped up when faced with these situations in the past, as they have not lost a final group stage fixture at the Gold Cup or Nations League since suffering a 3-0 defeat to Mexico during the 2019-20 Nations League.
In their inaugural Nations League campaign, Panama lost both of their matches played at Estadio Rommel Fernandez, failing to score in either encounter, but they have won their last two Nations League outings played there without conceding, while capturing their previous three games at this tournament on home soil.
Thomas Christiansen's men have not lost a match in which they scored the opening goal since a 4-1 defeat at Canada during the final phase of 2022 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.
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Up by two with over 30 minutes gone, it appeared as though the Guatemalans were primed to collect a big three points away from home on matchday three.
However, La Bicolor could not maintain that early momentum, conceding a 36th-minute penalty to the Soca Warriors which cut their lead in half before succumbing to a pair of second-half goals.
The four goals which they have allowed to this point of the League A campaign are as many as they gave up in their previous 10 games at this tournament when they competed in League C and B, respectively.
It was only the second time this year that this side had conceded multiple goals in a single match, while the three goals allowed against Trinidad were more than they had ever given up in 90 minutes under Luis Fernando Tena.
Now they have a tall task ahead of them if they are to make it into the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time, needing a win in Panama and probably a Martinique defeat as well, with the latter holding a one-point advantage on them along with a superior goal difference.
Their 1-1 draw against Panama on matchday two ended a nine-game losing run for Guatemala against them in all competitions, though they have not beaten Los Canaleros in Panama since July 1980 (2-0).
Team News
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We saw several new faces in the Panamanian starting 11 versus Curacao as Orlando Mosquera, Cristian Martinez, Michael Murillo, Yoel Barcenas and Alberto Quintero replaced Cesar Samudio, Anibal Godoy, Cesar Blackman, Ismael Diaz and Cecilio Waterman.
Alfredo Stephens and Abdiel Ayarza each made their first appearance at the Nations League this season, coming on as substitutes on matchday three in place of Murillo and Adalberto Carrasquilla respectively.
Barcenas put Panama in the lead against Curacao, but a 77th-minute strike by Jose Luis Rodriguez ultimately stood up as the winner.
There were two changes made to the Guatemalan opening lineup versus TNT, with Stheven Robles and Oscar Santis entering the fray in place of Jose Morales and Carlos Mejia.
Rubio Rubin scored for the first time in League A, while Santis netted for a second match running, but it was not enough as Nicholas Hagen has conceded four goals in his last two games after giving up just three in his five matches played before that.
Mejia and Pedro Altan were their other two goalscorers for Guatemala at the Nations League this season when they defeated El Salvador (2-0), while Santis netted the equaliser the last time out versus Panama.
Panama possible starting lineup:
Mosquera; Escobar, Cordoba, Andrade; Martinez, Carrasquilla, Rodriguez, Davis; Fajardo, Diaz; Waterman
Guatemala possible starting lineup:
Hagen; Robles, Pinto, Samayoa, Morales; Mendez-Laing, Castellanos, Saravia, Santis; Galindo, Rubin
We say: Panama 1-0 Guatemala
Panama know how to react when needing a victory, while this is relatively new territory for the Guatemalans, who have to be a little low on confidence after squandering a two-goal lead the last time out.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
