Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crystal Palace win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crystal Palace win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crystal Palace would win this match.