Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.77%) and 3-1 (5.41%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.