Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 69.23%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Fulham had a probability of 13.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Fulham win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.