Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 28.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.51%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.