Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.