Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bournemouth win with a probability of 40.35%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bournemouth win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.05%) and 0-2 (5.7%). The likeliest Southampton win was 2-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bournemouth would win this match.