Primeira Liga | Gameweek 4

Aug 28, 2022 at 6pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
0 - 6
Braga

Fernandes (6'), Simao (38'), Milovanov (39')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Banza (1'), Horta (4', 40' pen.), Oliveira (44'), Castro (67'), Lainez (76')
Medeiros (19'), Elmusrati (21'), Lainez (48')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

Last Six:

Last Game: Santa Clara 1-2 Arouca
Saturday, August 20 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Vitoria de Guimaraes	3	1	6
8	Arouca	3	-2	6
9	Boavista	4	-3	6

Braga

Last Six:

Last Game: Braga 5-0 Maritimo
Sunday, August 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	Portimonense	4	4	9
4	Braga	3	8	7
5	Estoril Praia	4	4	7

Off the back of victories over Gil Vicente and Santa Clara, Arouca will head into the weekend with sky-high confidence as they look to end their poor streak against the visitors. However, Braga possess the firepower to get the desired result this weekend and we are tipping them to edge out the hosts once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 49.29%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.73%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.4%) and 1-2 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Braga
24.73% ( 0.11)	25.98% ( 0.1)	49.29% ( -0.21)

Both teams to score 48.67% (

-0.18)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.27% (

-0.29)

54.73% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.95% (

-0.24)

76.04% (

0.24)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.58% (

-0.06)

37.41% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.8% (

-0.06)

74.2% (

0.06)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.76% (

-0.21)

22.24% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.33% (

-0.32)

55.67% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Arouca 24.73%

Braga 49.29%

Draw 25.97%

Arouca	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.98% 3-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 24.73%	1-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.82% Total : 25.97%	0-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 9.4% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.24% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 4.63% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.77% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.03) Other @ 3% Total : 49.29%