Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 36.72%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 34.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (11.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.