Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 51.11%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 25.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (6.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.