Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 21.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Sporting Lisbon win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.