Rayo Vallecano will be bidding to book their spot in the second round of the 2024-25 Copa del Rey when they tackle sixth-tier outfit Villamuriel on Tuesday night.
The visitors will enter the contest off the back of a 1-0 win over Alaves on Saturday, with the result moving them up into ninth spot in the La Liga table, while Villamuriel recorded a 5-0 victory over Rayo Abulense in Spain's sixth tier last time out.
Match preview
Villamuriel were only founded in 1976, and they have spent the vast majority of their history operating in the fifth and sixth tiers of Spanish football, but they did play in the fourth tier during the 2016-17 campaign.
Since the 2021-22 campaign, Pablo Lopez's side have been in the Primera Regional, and they will enter this match off the back of a huge win, having beaten Rayo Abulense 5-0 in the league on Saturday.
Villamuriel are 10th in their league table, boasting nine points from seven matches, while they have had to win one game to advance to the first round of the Copa del Rey, recording a 1-0 victory over Aurrera Vitoria.
Beating Rayo on Tuesday would be the biggest result in their history, and it would certainly go down as one of the biggest shocks of all time in the competition, so there is pressure on the visitors to triumph here.
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Rayo reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey in 2021-22, but they were knocked out in the round of 32 in 2022-23 before being eliminated in the round of 16 in 2023-24.
In truth, the league is far more important for the capital outfit, but a run in the cup would give them confidence, and as shown as recently as 2021-22, they are capable of advancing deep into the competition.
Inigo Perez's side will enter this match off the back of a win, having beaten Alaves 1-0 in La Liga on Saturday, with an own goal from Antonio Sivera in the 80th minute proving to be the difference between the two sides.
Rayo are currently ninth in the La Liga table, boasting 16 points from their 11 matches courtesy of a record of four wins, four draws and three defeats, while they have only conceded 10 times this term.
The capital side have only won one of their last five league games on their travels, though, which proved to be a 2-1 success over Real Valladolid at the start of the month.
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Team News
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Villamuriel head coach Lopez is expected to name a strong side on Tuesday, with Luismi Perez and Alejandro Diez likely to operate as the front two, while there should also be a spot for Sergio Mata in midfield.
A 4-4-2 formation should also feature Eduardo Pinacho in a wide area, and the 19-year-old will be keen to make an impression against a La Liga outfit.
As for Rayo, head coach Perez will make a number of changes to the side that took to the field for the first whistle against Alaves on Saturday, with Raul de Tomas likely to be among the starters, while Jorge de Frutos is expected to be one of those to drop out.
James Rodriguez and Adri Embarba should also come into the starting side, while Gerard Gumbau and Aridane Hernandez, who featured off the bench against Alaves, are also likely to be handed roles in the first XI.
Randy Nteka may also be given an attacking role from the first whistle, but a lack of options in the defensive positions could mean that Florian Lejeune starts again.
The capital side have not reported any fresh fitness concerns from their clash with Alaves, so Alfonso Espino and Diego Mendez are likely to be the only two absentees for the visitors on Tuesday night.
Villamuriel possible starting lineup:
Merino; Curieses, Soto, Ramirez, Cardenoso; Mata, Gutierrez, Perez, Pinacho; Diez, Perez
Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Cardenas; Balliu, Aridane, Lejeune, Chavarria; Gumbau, Ciss; Embarba, Rodriguez, Nteka; De Tomas
We say: Villamuriel 0-3 Rayo Vallecano
Rayo will rest a number of key players on Tuesday, but we are finding it incredibly difficult to predict anything other than a comfortable success for the La Liga outfit, who should have far too much quality all over the pitch.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 96.21%. A draw had a probability of 3.3% and a win for Villamuriel had a probability of 0.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 0-3 with a probability of 17.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (16.48%) and 0-2 (13.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (1.94%), while for a Villamuriel win it was 1-0 (0.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
