RB Leipzig will be looking to record their first Bundesliga victory since February 22 when they travel to a struggling Mainz 05 outfit on Sunday afternoon.
Julian Nagelsmann's side were held to a 1-1 draw by Freiburg on their return to action last weekend, while Mainz picked up a point in a 2-2 draw at Koln as Germany's top flight resumed amid the coronavirus pandemic.
Match preview
© Reuters
Eight wins, three draws and 15 defeats - that is how Mainz have performed in Germany's top flight during the 2019-20 campaign. A total of 27 points from 26 matches has left them in 15th position, just four points ahead of 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf on the same number of fixtures.
Mainz have been a Bundesliga since outfit since the 2009-10 campaign, and they actually finished as high as sixth in 2015-16. The club have posted 15th, 14th and 12th in their last three seasons, though, and it does appear that they are in for a difficult few weeks as they look to stay in the league.
The Bundesliga resumed last weekend amid the coronavirus pandemic, and Achim Beierlorzer's side came from two goals behind at Koln to pick up a welcome point.
Die Nullfunfer have only actually lost one of their last six in the Bundesliga and are now unbeaten in three, having overcome Paderborn and drawn with Dusseldorf in their two fixtures before the league was postponed.
© Reuters
Leipzig, meanwhile, were held to a 1-1 draw by Freiburg on home soil last weekend, and it could have been worse as the visitors had a goal disallowed in stoppage time for offside.
Nagelsmann's side have now drawn each of their last three in the Bundesliga, but they have not lost in Germany's top flight since the end of January, which was a 2-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt.
A total of 51 points from 26 matches has left them in fourth position in the table, three points behind second-placed Borussia Dortmund and seven off the leaders Bayern Munich.
This is the type of match that Leipzig will be expected to win if they are to launch a serious title challenge in the coming weeks, and Timo Werner will have to be in top form if that is to be the case.
The 24-year-old, who continues to be linked with Liverpool, has scored 21 Bundesliga goals this season, although he has only netted once in his last eight league appearances.
Mainz Bundesliga form: WDLWDD
Leipzig Bundesliga form: DWWDDD
Leipzig form (all competitions): WWDDWD
Team News
© Reuters
Mainz are expected to welcome Jean-Philippe Mateta back into their XI this weekend after the forward missed out against Koln through suspension.
Danny Latza and Stefan Bell have also overcome injuries to boost the squad, but Robin Zentner is out for the season, meaning that Florian Muller should again feature in goal.
Robin Quaison should keep his spot in an attacking position, meanwhile, despite the availability of Adam Szalai.
As for Leipzig, Emil Forsberg should overcome illness to start this weekend, while Dayot Upamecano is available after suspension and is expected to return to the defence.
Ibrahima Konate and Kevin Kampl should also be available after overcoming recent injuries, while Werner is understood to have shaken off a slight thigh complaint.
Marcel Sabitzer is expected to return to the XI, although the front two are likely to remain unchanged with Yussuf Poulsen, who scored against Freiburg, again partnering Werner.
Mainz possible starting lineup:
Muller; Baku, St Juste, Niakhate, Martin; Latza, Kunde Malong, Ji, Boetius, Quaison; Mateta
Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulacsi; Klostermann, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Angelino, Forsberg, Sabitzer, Laimer, Nkunku; Werner, Poulsen
We say: Mainz 0-2 Leipzig
Leipzig will be determined to return to winning ways after the disappointment of last weekend, and we are finding it difficult to back against the visitors. Werner is due a goal after a slightly disappointing run of form by his own high standards, and we fancy the Germany international to score in a 2-0 success.
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 59%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 20.73% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.93%) and 0-1 (7.31%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (5.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
