Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dumbarton win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for Stranraer had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dumbarton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Stranraer win was 0-1 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dumbarton would win this match.