Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 39.65%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 1-0 (10.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Malaga in this match.