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Serie A | Gameweek 28
Mar 10, 2024 at 2pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Empoli logo

AC Milan
1 - 0
Empoli

Pulisic (40')
Reijnders (26')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Fazzini (24'), Pezzella (53'), Zurkowski (65'), Cancellieri (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Empoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AC Milan 4-2 Slavia Prague
Thursday, March 7 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Empoli 0-1 Cagliari
Sunday, March 3 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 2-0 Empoli

Now capable of scoring via a number of different sources, Milan should be able to rotate their squad between European contests and still take maximum points against Empoli. The Azzurri are much improved under Davide Nicola, but they must take a step-up in class on Sunday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 63.06%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 16.42%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.69%), while for a Empoli win it was 0-1 (4.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
63.06% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08) 20.51% (0.053999999999998 0.05) 16.42% (0.029 0.03)
Both teams to score 53.09% (-0.124 -0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.46% (-0.198 -0.2)42.53% (0.199 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.06% (-0.19600000000001 -0.2)64.94% (0.19800000000001 0.2)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.13% (-0.080999999999989 -0.08)12.86% (0.083 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.75% (-0.173 -0.17)39.25% (0.174 0.17)
Empoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.93% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)39.07% (0.087000000000003 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.21% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)75.79% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 63.05%
    Empoli 16.42%
    Draw 20.51%
AC MilanDrawEmpoli
2-0 @ 10.56% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.3% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.93%
3-0 @ 7.22% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.79% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 3.7% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.48% (-0.022 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.19% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.014 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.52% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.43% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 63.05%
1-1 @ 9.69% (0.032 0.03)
0-0 @ 5.03% (0.044 0.04)
2-2 @ 4.67% (-0.011 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.0079999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 20.51%
0-1 @ 4.72% (0.031000000000001 0.03)
1-2 @ 4.55% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 2.22% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.46% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 16.42%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Empoli

AC Milan
87.5%
Draw
7.3%
Empoli
5.2%
96
Head to Head
Jan 7, 2024 11.30am
Gameweek 19
Empoli
0-3
AC Milan

Marin (81')
Loftus-Cheek (11'), Giroud (31' pen.), Traore (88')
Calabria (41'), Jimenez (54')
Apr 7, 2023 8pm
Oct 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Empoli
1-3
AC Milan
Bajrami (90+1')
Rebic (79'), Ballo-Toure (90+3'), Leao (90+6')
Mar 12, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 29
AC Milan
1-0
Empoli
Kalulu (19')
Tonali (90+4')
Dec 22, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
Empoli
2-4
AC Milan
Bajrami (18'), Pinamonti (84' pen.)
Romagnoli (62')
Kessie (12', 42'), Florenzi (63'), Hernandez (69')
Tonali (39'), Bennacer (80')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
FT
Bengals
34-35
Ravens
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli118121881025
2Inter Milan1173125131224
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1171329141522
4Fiorentina116412291322
5Lazio1171324141022
6Juventus115601971221
7AC Milan105231711617
8Udinese115151416-216
9Bologna103611211115
10Torino114251516-114
11Empoli1135389-114
12Roma113441214-213
13Hellas VeronaHellas Verona114071624-812
14Como122461323-1010
15Genoa12246922-1310
16CagliariCagliari11236919-109
17Parma111641417-39
18Monza111551014-48
19VeneziaVenezia112271019-98
20Lecce11227420-168


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