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Serie A | Gameweek 21
Jan 18, 2025 at 5pm UK
Allianz Stadium
Milan logo

Juventus
2 - 0
AC Milan

Mbangula (59'), Weah (64')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Bennacer (61'), Emerson (72')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Juventus and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Atalanta 1-1 Juventus
Tuesday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Como 1-2 AC Milan
Tuesday, January 14 at 5.30pm in Serie A

We said: Juventus 1-0 AC Milan

After a dull goalless draw in the league earlier this season - and an eventful encounter in the Supercoppa Italiana - it might be a one-goal game on Saturday. Both sides have several flaws - as evidenced by their modest placing in the table - but Juve's solid defence can frustrate most teams, and they may finally hang on to a lead. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 40.28%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Juventus would win this match.

Result
JuventusDrawAC Milan
40.28% (0.352 0.35) 25.74% (0.085000000000001 0.09) 33.98% (-0.429 -0.43)
Both teams to score 54.77% (-0.374 -0.37)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.66% (-0.441 -0.44)49.34% (0.448 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.62% (-0.397 -0.4)71.39% (0.405 0.41)
Juventus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.8% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)24.2% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.47% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)58.53% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.25% (-0.476 -0.48)27.75% (0.482 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.68% (-0.617 -0.62)63.32% (0.623 0.62)
Score Analysis
    Juventus 40.28%
    AC Milan 33.98%
    Draw 25.74%
JuventusDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 9.53% (0.168 0.17)
2-1 @ 8.67% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 6.76% (0.115 0.12)
3-1 @ 4.1% (0.013 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.2% (0.053 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.63% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 1.45% (0.004 0)
4-0 @ 1.13% (0.018 0.02)
4-2 @ 0.93% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 1.89%
Total : 40.28%
1-1 @ 12.21% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.71% (0.122 0.12)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.055000000000001 -0.06)
3-3 @ 1.12% (-0.027 -0.03)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.74%
0-1 @ 8.61% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
1-2 @ 7.83% (-0.074 -0.07)
0-2 @ 5.52% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
1-3 @ 3.35% (-0.077 -0.08)
2-3 @ 2.37% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-3 @ 2.36% (-0.053 -0.05)
1-4 @ 1.07% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 33.98%

How you voted: Juventus vs AC Milan

Juventus
54.4%
Draw
26.2%
AC Milan
19.5%
149
Head to Head
Jan 3, 2025 7pm
Semi-Finals
Juventus
1-2
AC Milan
Yildiz (21')
McKennie (45+1')
Pulisic (71' pen.), Gatti (75' og.)
Emerson (79'), Pulisic (82')
Nov 23, 2024 5pm
Gameweek 13
AC Milan
0-0
Juventus
Leao (26'), Emerson (67'), Fofana (69')
Gatti (27'), Locatelli (87')
Apr 27, 2024 5pm
Gameweek 34
Juventus
0-0
AC Milan
Musah (45+1')
Oct 22, 2023 7.45pm
Gameweek 9
AC Milan
0-1
Juventus

Reijnders (61')
Thiaw (40')
Locatelli (63')
Weah (52'), McKennie (67'), Gatti (71'), Locatelli (72'), Allegri (90+5')
Jul 28, 2023 3.30am
Club Friendlies
Juventus
2-2
AC Milan
(Aggregate 2-2 | Juventus win 0-0 on penalties)
Danilo (33'), Rugani (48')
Locatelli (54')
Thiaw (23'), Giroud (39')
Thiaw (15')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan28187363273661
2Napoli28186445232260
3Atalanta BCAtalanta28177463263758
4Juventus281313245252052
5Lazio28156750361451
6Bologna281311444341050
7Roma28137843301346
8Fiorentina28136943301345
9AC Milan28128842321044
10Udinese28117103538-340
11Torino2881193334-135
12Genoa28711102636-1032
13Como2878133444-1029
14CagliariCagliari2868142843-1526
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2882182858-3026
16Lecce2867152046-2625
17Parma2859143448-1424
18Empoli28410142345-2222
19VeneziaVenezia28310152342-1919
20Monza2828182348-2514


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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